Buffalo Expatriate

(Georgian expats protesting in Kyiv)

The recent military actions between Georgia and Russia have stirred significant debate about the status of Ukraine as it is also a country in transition that hasn’t quite made up its mind about NATO and has significant ties to Russia.

Although Ukraine is in a different position than Georgia, that does not mean Ukrainians feel safe. It does not mean they feel confident that Russia would never turn its resentful glare backed by military power towards Ukraine. In fact, some feel that because Russia moved into Georgia, Ukraine should never feel comfortable with its position again. And it does not mean the politicians here are not brass enough to do something to really provocative at the expectation that Europe and the U.S. will back them up.

What has Ukraine done so far in its response?

- President Yushchenko just left today for Tbilisi, along with the leaders of Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, to meet with President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia.

- In a more bold move, Ukraine is considering its options for not allowing the Black Sea Fleet to return to the Crimea, from which Russian warships were sent to Georgia. (For those that don’t know, Russia still has a lease on ports in Crimea until 2017. Yushchenko has made it clear he does not support the existence of this arrangement, people living in the Crimea are split on the issue).

In the morning of August 10, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed its Russian counterpart that in order to prevent Ukraine from being drawn into an armed conflict, Ukraine might take measures to prevent the Russian Black Sea Fleet (RBSF) vessels from returning to their base in Sevastopol in the Crimea if they were involved in combat operations against Georgia. This ban might last until the conflict in South Ossetia is “regulated,” the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated. -Eurasia Daily Monitor

- Ukraine has decided not to send military assistance to Georgia, although Russia has accused Ukraine of supplying Georgia with weapons that were used against Russian troops.

The last two points are already eliciting some rather threatening language from Moscow.

“The Ukrainian government, which has been enthusiastically arming Georgian troops from top to bottom, was in fact encouraging Georgia to attack and carry out ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia,” the ministry said in a statement on its website www.mid.ru. -Reuters

Russian statements took on more ominous tones later that evening after Russian troops began an assault on the Georgian city of Gori. The Ukrayinska Pravda website quoted a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying, “The actions by the Ukrainian side are contrary to Ukrainian-Russian agreements and are hostile to the Russian Federation.” At approximately the same time, Interfax, citing information released by the Russian navy, reported that a Georgian military ship had been sunk by the Russian fleet off the coast of Abkhazia. -EDM

It is all risk-taking for Ukraine. With the West showing little ability to be able to respond effectively to the situation and Russia touting justifications for its actions, Ukraine is in a vulnerable position. Yushchenko has a long standing anti-Moscow relationship with the Georgian president. Is Ukraine in as vulnerable a position as Georgia was before the conflict? No. However, Ukraine is not in NATO, Russia feels the same resentment towards Ukraine about its Western ambitions, and Ukraine is tied through economic and energy ties with Russia that it can’t afford to break. Russia knows all of this meaning that Russia has all the tools to reassert its influence over Ukraine.

Recent articles on the situation:
Russia Steps Up Its Push; West Faces Tough Choices, New York Times, August 12, 2008
ANALYSIS-US has few options in Russia-Georgia conflict, Reuters, August 12, 2008
Sarkozy off to Moscow, Tbilisi to discuss Georgia crisis, AFP, August 12, 2008

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UPDATE

Literally, during the moments I was posting this, news came that Russia has decided to halt operation in Georgia.

From the BBC:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations against Georgia, the Kremlin says.

He told officials he had taken the decision to end the operation after restoring security for civilians and peacekeepers in South Ossetia…

Before the announcement, there were fresh reports of Russian warplanes bombing the Georgian town of Gori.

Witnesses told the BBC that several people were killed when a bomb hit a hospital in the town, which is 10 miles (15km) from the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

A reporter for Reuters news agency said several bombs exploded in front of his vehicle, while a photographer for the agency spoke of seeing dead and injured people lying in the streets.

News of Mr Medvedev’s decision emerged as French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived in Moscow expecting to press Russia on the need for a ceasefire.

According to a statement, Mr Medvedev told his defence minister and chief of staff that “the goal has been attained”.

“I’ve decided to finish the operation to force the Georgian authorities to peace. The safety of our peacekeeping forces and civilian population has been restored.

“The aggressor has been punished, having sustained considerable losses. Its armed forces have been disorganised,” he added.

The BBC’s James Rodgers, in Moscow, said there is no sign yet that Russia is willing to engage in talks with the government in Tbilisi.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 at 1:00 am and is filed under International News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.