
As most of you have probably heard, the U.S. has decided to increase pressure on Iran by putting into place tougher sanctions against 25 Iranian companies, banks, and individuals and the Defense Ministry, including the Revolutionary Guard. This is the first time the U.S. has applied sanctions to another country’s armed forces, however the Guard is said to control quite a bit of the Iranian economy thus the reason for sanctions against them.
In addition to freezing any assets they may have in U.S. jurisdictions, something officials acknowledged would be of minimal effect, the sanctions also bar Americans from doing business with them.
But of far greater impact, officials said, they will subject foreign firms to U.S. sanctions if they engage with the designated entities. -NPR
On the other side, Iran has dismissed the sanctions as “doomed to fail”
“These sanctions are nothing new. Sanctions have been imposed on us for 28 years. The new sanctions, like all those before, will have no effect on Iran’s policies,” Mr Jalili said on his return from talks in Rome with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.
“The sanctions will only isolate the United States on the international stage,” he said of the measures against Tehran, unveiled on Thursday.
Which isn’t necessarily true as some European countries as well as Australia are actually debating the issue. Britain and France have come out in support of them, while Germany, and Italy are looking to continue current negotiations and sanctions. But, according to an article in the IHT,
Analysts say at least two variables could alter the mix: Iran’s new nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili could toe such a hard-line that Germany and Italy might lean more toward sanctions, or the tough stance of France and Britain could overcome the hesitancy of Rome and Berlin and any other holdouts.
China and Russia have also issued responses, which basically state the sanctions will only complicate negotiations. In fact, President Putin anagolized the situation as such: “It’s not the best way to resolve the situation by running around like a madman with a razor blade in his hand.” Well, I don’t quite get the analogy, but it’s obvious he objects.
Sanctions are, of course, a controversial diplomatic tool. It’s difficult to say whether these sanctions against Iran will have big enough effect to get Iran to come back to negotiations with the intention of scaling back their nuclear activities. Making Saeed Jalili the top nuclear negotiator in Iran probably was a signal that’s not their intention.
Diplomats who met Jalili when he was a deputy foreign minister say he tended to express strongly held views and stick firmly to his position. One diplomat said he “specializes in monologue” rather than debate.
This, of course, happened before the sanctions and is not why they’re controversial. Sanctions can have several negative or unintended impacts. Examples
1) A humanitarian impact that causes more people at the bottom to suffer than the leaders the sanctions are intended to pressure. The refining of targeted sanctions has improved this a bit, but when leaders don’t care if their people suffer, they’ll get the money from somewhere. It also depends on how much people are willing to put up with before becoming disatisified with the regime to the point of doing something about it.
2) It leaves the sanctioning country with less influence to wield at the negotiating table. This is what some have feared has happened with Sudan and Burma as the US has applied sanctions there without effectively halting brutality. This could especially be the case if other countries are still holding regimes afloat. In the case of Sudan, Burma, and Iran, it is mostly China and Russia who carry more influence over the actions of the government partly do to the fact that they have investment in the country.
On the other hand, it is probably one of the strongest tools the U.S. has aside from actual use of the military. Part of the reason these new sanctions against Iran are so huge is because they also impact foreign companies who do business with the targets of the sanctions. As far as I know, this is not the case in Sudan. That was the big controversy this year over Warren Buffet’s investments in PetroChina, which is seen as one of the key foreign investment schemes propping up the genocidal regime of Sudan. By the way, he just sold his last stakes in PetroChina a week or so ago although he claimed it had nothing to do with pressure to divest. Anyway, these sanctions force foreign firms to rethink their business in Iran if they have serious American money flowing through their companies. Although, I’m not sure if that represents a huge percentage of foreign firms doing business with the targeted groups and individuals in Iran.
NPR produced a short article on some of the U.S. sanction list with brief histories on each country other than Iran. Perhaps part of the reason I doubt the impact of these new sanctions is because of their long term use and relative ineffectiveness over long periods, particularly in the case of Cuba and Iran. As long as Russia and China continue to become closer to the regime, the sanctions may prove useless. According to a RFE/RL article on the recent meeting between Putin and Ahmadinejad, Russia does not historically have a good relationship with Iran, economic pressure has forced Iran to move closer to Moscow which the Kremlin has welcomed, but Russia still does not want to see Iran develop nuclear weapons. Perhaps this is a card the US could use later if it turns out Iran is developing a weapon, although it is probably not of much consequence at this moment.