Can Ukraine handle the World Bank’s advice?
July 3rd, 2008
The World Bank recently released a report on what gaps Eastern European countries need to fill if they want to sustain their current growth, Innovation, Inclusion, and Integration: From Transition to Convergence in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union.
Countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have put the crisis of the 1990s behind them, but they need to innovate, include all their citizens in the development of their countries, and integrate with the broader global economy if they want to sustain growth, says a new World Bank report.
The International Herald Tribune focused in on one of the suggestions that the report makes concerning the workforce of these countries, which is to bring in more foreign workers to fill the gaps created by population decline (both natural and due to native workers going elsewhere):
Countries in eastern Europe will have to open up to new waves of immigrants to prevent their economies being hobbled by labor shortages caused by rapidly aging populations, a senior World Bank economist warned Wednesday.
After years of exporting workers westward, Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria and the Baltic states must bring in labor from outside Europe to offset their demographic decline, or forget hopes of catching up with Western economies, said Pradeep Mitra, the World Bank’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia.
“There’s no question that immigration will be needed to fill labor shortages,” Mitra told reporters. “The trade off is: accept migration in a regulated way or don’t be serious about converging with EU 15 living standards.”
Mitra was referring to the 15 Western nations who made up the European Union before the entry of 12 other European nations since 2004.
Launching a World Bank report on the region’s economy, Mitra said falling birth rates were expected to lead to Ukraine’s population falling by a fifth by 2025. Bulgaria, Georgia, Belarus, Latvia, Russia and Lithuania are all expected to see population declines of more than 10 percent over the same period.
U.N. data show just 200,000 foreigners are registered as living in Ukraine, mostly from other former-Soviet nations. Experts warn that without action to address looming labor shortages, the country of 46 million will not be able to maintain its healthy economic growth, which topped 7 percent last year.
“There is not an organized policy to identify those gaps and to seek legal mechanism to fill those gaps,” said Jeffrey Labovitz, head of the International Organization for Migration mission in Ukraine.
Pradeep Mitra also acknowledged that there is the possibility a sudden influx of foreigners may trigger backlash from the native population. The IHT article discusses the already rising rate of xenophobic violence in Ukraine.
It seems that xenophobic attacks in Ukraine will increase whether or not Ukraine decides to boost its efforts to bring in more foreign labor if the government doesn’t uniformly recognize the problem and deal with it appropriately. The government still releases conflicting information and policy statements that do everything from recognize the problem to fall back on statistics that “show” crimes by foreigners are increasing (thus creating further resentment against them) to saying that there is no racism in Ukraine, there are only manifestations of racism. I am not sure where the author of the IHT article gathered her statistics on attacks in Ukraine against foreigners with possible racial motivations. The only source it cites is “the police,” which, not surprisingly, are a weak link in the response to racially motivated-attacks in Ukraine. So, the source seems strange to me.
This post will not argue whether or not Ukraine needs more foreign workers to fill its labor needs. The World Bank report has already come to a conclusion about that with facts and figures. However, can Ukraine really handle an influx of foreign workers when the country has a broken immigration system with a lack of an organized policy and a problem with xenophobic attacks that is increasing in numbers and the level of violence? It will be interesting to see what the official response (more likely responses) from the Ukrainian government will be towards this report.















